Introduction

The most important question about any sports prediction service: does it actually work? At Rovnic, we believe in radical transparency. We track every prediction and publish our results openly. In this post, we share real accuracy data across every sport we cover.

Our Model Performance by Sport

Here are our current model test accuracy metrics (validated on held-out data the model never saw during training):

NBA: 61.4% accuracy, 0.656 AUC
NFL: 66.8% accuracy, 0.692 AUC
MLB: 55.7% accuracy, 0.574 AUC
NHL: 57.3% accuracy, 0.574 AUC
College Football: 69.8% accuracy, 0.754 AUC

These numbers represent test set performance. Live production accuracy can vary based on data freshness, market conditions, and sample size.

What Do These Numbers Mean?

Accuracy

Accuracy measures how often the model correctly picks the winner. A coin flip would give you 50%. Our models range from 55-70% depending on the sport, which translates to a meaningful edge when combined with proper bankroll management.

AUC (Area Under the Curve)

AUC measures how well the model distinguishes between wins and losses across all probability thresholds. A perfect model scores 1.0, random chance scores 0.5. Our NFL and NCAAF models score above 0.69, indicating strong discriminative ability.

Why Some Sports Are Harder to Predict

MLB and NHL have lower accuracy because they’re inherently more random. In baseball, even the best team wins only ~60% of its games. Hockey has low-scoring games where a single bouncing puck can decide the outcome. In contrast, college footballhas many lopsided matchups, making it easier for models to achieve higher accuracy.

Transparency Is Non-Negotiable

We publish our prediction performance on the accuracy dashboard in real time. If our models have a bad week, you’ll see it. We believe this transparency is what separates legitimate AI prediction platforms from the noise.

Check Live Predictions

See our predictions in action on the daily picks page, or explore individual sports: NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, Soccer, College Football, and College Basketball.

How Accurate Are AI Sports Predictions?