How Winning Percentage is Calculated
Prediction Recording
Every prediction is automatically recorded when made, including win probabilities and confidence levels.
Result Verification
After games finish, we fetch actual scores and determine if our prediction was correct.
Accuracy Calculation
Winning % = (Correct Predictions / Total Completed Games) × 100%
About the Model
Understanding our prediction methodology
Prediction Sources:
- Betting odds from The Odds API (multiple bookmakers)
- Implied probability calculations from moneyline odds
- Historical team performance data
- Real-time injury and lineup information
Confidence Levels:
- High Confidence: Win probability difference > 15% (e.g., 70% vs 30%)
- Medium Confidence: Win probability difference 8-15% (e.g., 60% vs 40%)
- Low Confidence: Win probability difference < 8% (e.g., 52% vs 48%)
Update Frequency:
- Predictions are recorded in real-time when fetched
- Accuracy metrics update every 5 minutes automatically
- Game results are verified after each game completes
- Historical data is maintained for trend analysis
Accuracy Goals:
- Current Overall Accuracy: 56-70% depending on sport
- High Confidence Predictions: Target 65-70% accuracy
- Close Games (Low Confidence): Expected ~52-58% accuracy