Win-probability projections for every game on 2026-05-16. Each is recorded before the game and graded against the result.
Experimental models — full record on our accuracy & transparency page.
| Away | Home | Home win prob | Away win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers | Houston Astros | 25% | 75% | Details |
| Kansas City Royals | St. Louis Cardinals | 67.1% | 32.9% | Details |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | Colorado Rockies | 46.1% | 53.9% | Details |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Angels | 32.2% | 67.8% | Details |
| San Diego Padres | Seattle Mariners | 41.3% | 58.7% | Details |
| San Francisco Giants | Athletics | 59.3% | 40.7% | Details |
| Toronto Blue Jays | Detroit Tigers | 70.8% | 29.2% | Details |
| Kansas City Royals | St. Louis Cardinals | 75% | 25% | Details |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | Colorado Rockies | 71.6% | 28.4% | Details |
| Baltimore Orioles | Washington Nationals | 72.5% | 27.5% | Details |
| Philadelphia Phillies | Pittsburgh Pirates | 72.5% | 27.5% | Details |
| Miami Marlins | Tampa Bay Rays | 25% | 75% | Details |
| Cincinnati Reds | Cleveland Guardians | 25% | 75% | Details |
| Chicago Cubs | Chicago White Sox | 75% | 25% | Details |
| Milwaukee Brewers | Minnesota Twins | 73.1% | 26.9% | Details |
| Texas Rangers | Houston Astros | 25% | 75% | Details |
| Boston Red Sox | Atlanta Braves | 25% | 75% | Details |
| New York Yankees | New York Mets | 72.8% | 27.2% | Details |
| San Diego Padres | Seattle Mariners | 75% | 25% | Details |
| Away | Home | Home win prob | Away win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Spurs | Minnesota Timberwolves | 72.5% | 27.5% | Details |
| Away | Home | Home win prob | Away win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Tempo | Los Angeles Sparks | 50.3% | 49.7% | Details |
| Chicago Sky | Phoenix Mercury | 50% | 50% | Details |
For information and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice.