Win-probability projections for every game on 2026-05-04. Each is recorded before the game and graded against the result.
Experimental models — full record on our accuracy & transparency page.
| Away | Home | Home win prob | Away win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | Colorado Rockies | 71.8% | 28.2% | Details |
| Boston Red Sox | Detroit Tigers | 25% | 75% | Details |
| Philadelphia Phillies | Miami Marlins | 75% | 25% | Details |
| Toronto Blue Jays | Tampa Bay Rays | 75% | 25% | Details |
| Baltimore Orioles | New York Yankees | 75% | 25% | Details |
| Cincinnati Reds | Chicago Cubs | 25% | 75% | Details |
| Cleveland Guardians | Kansas City Royals | 68.2% | 31.8% | Details |
| Milwaukee Brewers | St. Louis Cardinals | 75% | 25% | Details |
| Away | Home | Home win prob | Away win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Wild | Colorado Avalanche | 55.5% | 44.5% | Details |
| Philadelphia Flyers | Carolina Hurricanes | 56.9% | 43.1% | Details |
| Away | Home | Home win prob | Away win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | Chelsea | 48.3% | 51.7% | Details |
| Manchester City | Everton | 48.3% | 51.7% | Details |
For information and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice.